Question 1

How much would I have if I DCA'd $100/week into UGP for 5 years?

Accepted Answer

Dollar cost averaging $100 per week into UGP for 5 years (261 purchases) would have resulted in a total investment of $26,100 and a current value of $60,004, a return of 130%. Using Enhanced DCA, which concentrates buys during dips, the same $100/week base deployed $41,173 and grew to $111,891 — a 172% return.

Question 2

What is the best DCA strategy for UGP?

Accepted Answer

Backtesting shows Enhanced DCA — which increases buy amounts during market dips and reduces or skips buys when UGP is overextended — outperformed standard weekly DCA by 42% over 5 years. The enhanced strategy achieved a 172% return vs 130% for standard DCA.

Question 3

What would $100/week into UGP be worth after 3 years?

Accepted Answer

Investing $100 per week into UGP for 3 years (157 purchases, $15,700 total) would have grown to $30,212 — a 92% return. Enhanced DCA over the same period returned 132%.

Question 4

Is DCA into UGP worth it?

Accepted Answer

Based on a 5-year backtest, DCA into UGP returned 130% with standard weekly purchases. An intelligent DCA strategy that buys more during dips returned 172% over the same period — a 42% gain in return, while deploying more capital.

Question 5

How many shares of UGP would I have after DCA for 5 years?

Accepted Answer

Dollar cost averaging $100/week into UGP for 5 years would result in approximately 7595 shares with a standard DCA approach (avg entry $3). Enhanced DCA targeting dips results in 14163 shares at an average entry of $3.

Question 6

How does UGP DCA compare to the S&P 500?

Accepted Answer

Enhanced DCA into UGP returned 172% over the past 5 years. The S&P 500 (SPY) returned approximately 53% over the same period. UGP's performance reflects its volatility as a energy asset. Enhanced DCA outperformed standard DCA by 42%, demonstrating the value of intelligent entry timing during market dips.

Question 7

What is the risk of dollar cost averaging into UGP?

Accepted Answer

Past backtest performance does not guarantee future results. UGP is a energy asset whose price can fall as well as rise. While DCA reduces timing risk by spreading purchases over time, losses are still possible if the price declines significantly. Always invest within your risk tolerance and consider your overall portfolio diversification.

Question 8

What is the Ultrapar Participações S.A. dollar cost averaging strategy?

Accepted Answer

Standard DCA invests a fixed amount ($100/week or $433/month) into UGP at regular intervals. Enhanced DCA improves on this by using RSI (Relative Strength Index) signals to increase buy amounts during market dips (oversold conditions) and reduce or skip purchases when the stock is overextended. Over the 5-year backtest, this timing approach has delivered 42% higher returns than standard DCA while deploying more total capital into UGP.

Period	Standard DCA	Enhanced DCA	Alpha
1-Year	56%	82%	+27%
3-Year	92%	132%	+40%
5-Year	130%	172%	+42%

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