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James D.
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Assets›Asset Details
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VGSH DCA Backtest — Dollar Cost Averaging Results

Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF · Other
Caution
DCA Score
33
Updated Oct 11, 2026
Sector:Other→

VGSH DCA Results: Key Findings

Investing $100 per week into Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) using Enhanced DCA over the past 5 years resulted in a total investment of $36,310, growing to a current value of $35,733 — a return of -2%.

Standard dollar cost averaging over the same period returned -2%, making Enhanced DCA +0% more effective with a lower average entry price of $59 versus standard DCA's $59.

VGSH DCA backtest results: standard vs enhanced
PeriodStandard DCAEnhanced DCAAlpha
1-Year-1%-1%+0%
3-Year-1%-1%+0%
5-Year-2%-2%+0%
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Alpha you missed while unsubscribed

Our Pro members bought these signals. Here's what the returns look like — and what was left on the table.

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Major Weekly Buy Signal
Signal issued Sep 6, 2022 when our algorithm told users to buy ↗ $600
-1.6%
return to date
Current value of $600 position
$590
You weren't subscribed
Major Monthly Buy Signal
Signal issued Sep 1, 2022 when our algorithm told users to buy ↗ $2,598
-1.7%
return to date
Current value of $2,598 position
$2,554
Live Signal & Allocation %
Weekly Buy
As of Oct 9, 2026 close
0%
No buy at this reading
Next signal on or after Oct 12, 2026
Monthly Buy
As of Oct 9, 2026 close
84%
Next signal on or after Nov 2, 2026
Signals like these fire across 1,958 assets
Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF DCA Calculator
Weekly and Monthly DCA Calculator
Frequency
Amount
$100
/week
1 Year
+0.2% alpha
Standard
Invested
$0
Value
$0
Return
-1.5%
Enhanced
Invested
$0
Value
$0
Return
-1.2%
32 targeted purchases · avg entry $58
3 Years
+0.2% alpha
Standard
Invested
$0
Value
$0
Return
-1.3%
Enhanced
Invested
$0
Value
$0
Return
-1.1%
78 targeted purchases · avg entry $58
5 Years
+0.0% alpha
Standard
Invested
$0
Value
$0
Return
-1.6%
Enhanced
Invested
$0
Value
$0
Return
-1.6%
157 targeted purchases · avg entry $59
Alpha Advantage · 5Y Enhanced DCA
+0.0%
Enhanced DCA achieved higher returns on the capital it deployed — with a lower average entry price than standard DCA
Avg entry$59 vs $59
5Y return-1.6% vs -1.6%
Ending value ahead+$10,055
Backtest analysis

Dollar cost averaging into VGSH — backtest results

Investing $100/week into VGSH (Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF) using standard dollar cost averaging over the past 5 years would have resulted in a total investment of $26,100 across 261 purchases, growing to a current value of $25,677 — a return of -2%.

Using Enhanced DCA — which automatically buys more when multiple signals agree conditions are right, and holds back when they don't — See the full methodology. The same $100/week base deployed $36,310 across 157 targeted purchases, growing to $35,733. That's a return of -2% — +0% more than standard DCA, with a lower average entry price of $59 vs $59.

Over the same 5-year period, standard weekly DCA into the S&P 500 (SPY) returned approximately 53%, so VGSH's -2% Enhanced DCA return was below the index over the same period.

1-year weekly DCA results
Standard: $5,200 → $5,124 · -1%
Enhanced: $8,561 → $8,456 · -1%
3-year weekly DCA results
Standard: $15,700 → $15,491 · -1%
Enhanced: $17,281 → $17,085 · -1%
5-year weekly DCA results
Standard: $26,100 → $25,677 · -2%
Enhanced: $36,310 → $35,733 · -2%

Buying the dips for Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF

i
Weekly buy signals for VGSH. Larger markers are larger purchases, up to 6 times the base amount.
Frequently asked questions
How Enhanced DCA works
Multiple signals, one smarter decision
The buy multiplier is built from several inputs on the signal date: momentum (RSI), distance from the long term average, how far price has fallen from its yearly high, trend direction, and market fear (VIX). Each one scales the buy, so a week with a steep drawdown and elevated fear can produce a much larger buy.
Only what was known at the time
Every historical signal is computed from the prices available on its own date and nothing later, so the backtest cannot benefit from hindsight. Buys fill at the next day's open.
Same budget, working harder
Standard DCA buys the same amount every period. Enhanced DCA buys more when the model sees a dip and skips periods when it does not, so capital is concentrated at lower prices. The result can be a lower or higher total spend than standard DCA, and both are shown above.
Risk Disclosure: Past backtest performance does not guarantee future results. Dollar cost averaging into Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) involves investment risk, including potential loss of principal. VGSH is a Other etf whose price can fall as well as rise. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.
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Prices as of 9 October 2026 close · Backtest rebuilt 11 October 2026